As of May 15, 2026, tungsten prices have fallen by about 50% from their historical peak in mid-March. China Tungsten Online analyzes the reasons for this continued decline in tungsten prices as follows:
(1) Market Bubble Release: The cumulative increase in prices of major tungsten products in 2025 was approximately 220%, and in the first quarter of 2026, it more than doubled again, resulting in a cumulative increase of nearly 650% over the entire cycle. At that time, there was considerable speculative hoarding. When market sentiment reversed, huge unrealized profits prompted holders to actively liquidate their holdings, leading to a concentrated sell-off and significant downward pressure.
(2) Increased Supply-Demand Mismatch: Profit-taking triggered panic selling, causing the supply-demand balance to shift rapidly from a tight balance to a temporary oversupply. During the downward price cycle and with no clear bottom, downstream end-users generally slowed down their restocking pace, and the market only maintained sporadic rigid demand circulation, resulting in a weak overall trading atmosphere. The obstruction of inventory reduction in the distribution sector has exacerbated the downward pressure on spot prices.
(3) A negative sentiment feedback loop. Sellers' profit-taking to recover funds or avoid risks has evolved into panic selling; buyers, driven by the psychology of not buying during price declines, have become increasingly cautious. Market sentiment contagion and the outcome of the game between the two sides amplify price fluctuations.
China Tungsten Online believes that the current tungsten market is still in a phase of price decline and risk digestion. Before the selling pressure is fully released and downstream active restocking signals appear, tungsten prices are likely to continue to be under pressure and seek a bottom. In the medium to long term, the strategic scarcity of tungsten resources remains the main support, but the market fundamentals still need time to recover.
